Ed Zitron - The Coming Generative AIPocalypse

This podcast episode by Ed Zitron is very soberly told on artificial intelligence. The episode was published early in December of 2024 and it can be found on YouTube and as an article, Godot Isn't Making It.

Here are some of my favourite quotes, with kind permission from Ed:

Generative AI is incredibly unprofitable. OpenAI, the biggest player in the industry, is on course to lose more than $5 billion this year, with competitor Anthropic (which also makes its own transformer-based model, Claude) on course to lose more than $2.7 billion this year.

Every single big tech company has thrown billions — as much as $75 billion in Amazon's case in 2024 alone — at building the data centers and acquiring the GPUs to populate said data centers specifically so they can train their models or other companies' models, or serve customers that would integrate generative AI into their businesses, something that does not appear to be happening at scale.

The entire tech industry has become oriented around a dead-end technology that requires burning billions of dollars to provide inessential products that cost them more money to serve than anybody would ever pay. Their big strategy was to throw even more money at the problem until one of these transformer-based models created a new, more useful product — despite the fact that every iteration of GPT and other models has been, well, iterative. There has never been any proof (other than benchmarks that are increasingly easier to game) that GPT or other models would become conscious, nor that these models would do more than they do today, or three months ago, or even a year ago.

. While Anthropic's demo of its model allegedly controlling a few browser windows with a prompt might have seemed impressive to credulous people like Casey Newton, these were controlled demos which Anthropic added were "slow" and "made lots of mistakes."  Hey, almost like it's hallucinating! I sure hope they fix that totally unfixable problem.

Even if it does, Anthropic has now successfully replaced...an entry-level data worker position at an indeterminate and likely unprofitable price. And in many organizations, those jobs had already been outsourced, or automated, or staffed with cheaper contractors.

The obscenity of this mass delusion is nauseating — a monolith to bad decision-making and the herd mentality of tech's most powerful people, as well as an outright attempt to manipulate the media into believing something was possible that wasn't. And the media bought it, hook, line, and sinker.

There is no path, from what I can see, to turn generative AI and its associated products into anything resembling sustainable businesses, and the only path that big tech appeared to have was to throw as much money, power, and data at the problem as possible, an avenue that appears to be another dead end.

And worse still, nothing has really come out of this movement. I've used a handful of AI products that I've found useful — an AI powered journal, for example — but these are not the products that one associates with "revolutions," but useful tools that would have been a welcome surprise if they didn't require burning billions of dollars, blowing past emissions targets and stealing the creative works of millions of people to train them.

[...] OpenAI is also a terrible business that has to burn $5 billion to make $3.4 billion, with no proof that it’s capable of bringing down costs. The constant refrain I hear from VCs and AI fantasists is that "chips will bring down the cost of inference," yet I don't see any proof of that happening, nor do I think it'll happen quickly enough for these companies to turn things around.

This is a truly dismal situation where the only options are to stop now, or continue burning money until the heat gets too much. It cost $100 million to train GPT-4o, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei estimated a few months ago that training future models will cost $1 billion to $10 billion, with one researcher claiming that training OpenAI's GPT-5 will cost around $1 billion.

Yet what we have is clunky, ugly, messy, larcenous, environmentally-destructive and mediocre. Generative AI was a reckless pursuit, one that shows a total lack of creativity and sense in the minds of big tech and venture capital, one where there was never anything really impressive other than the amount of money it could burn and the amount of times Sam Altman could say something stupid and get quoted for it.

I'll be honest with you, I have no idea what happens here. The future was always one that demanded that big tech spent more to make even bigger models that would at some point become useful, and that isn't happening. In pursuit of doing so, big tech invested hundreds of billions of dollars into infrastructure specifically to follow one goal, and put AI front and center at their businesses, claiming it was the future without ever considering what they'd do if it wasn't.

I also want to be clear that none of these companies ever had a plan. They believed that if they threw enough GPUs together they would turn generative AI – probabilistic models for generating stuff — into some sort of sentient computer. It’s much easier, and more comfortable, to look at the world as a series of conspiracies and grand strategies, and far scarier to see it for what it is — extremely rich and powerful people that are willing to bet insanely large amounts of money on what amounts to a few PDFs and their gut.

There are other ideas for the future that aren’t borne of the scuzzy mindset of billionaire shitheels like Sundar Pichai and Sam Altman, and they can — and will — grow out of the ruins created by these kleptocrats.